How Developers Price New Condos and Why Early Buyers Mostly Win (Backed by Data)
Thinking of buying a new launch condo in Singapore? Discover how developer pricing works, why early buyers often profit more, and what URA resale data really says about timing your entry in 2025.
Introduction
In Singapore’s fast-moving property market, timing your new launch condo purchase can mean the difference between a good deal and a missed opportunity. With developers increasingly adopting phased pricing strategies, buyers are asking: Should I buy now, or wait? In 2025, the answer may cost you thousands.
In this article, we break down how new launch pricing works, why developers rarely release all units at once. Instead, they adopt a phased pricing strategy, releasing a portion of units at an initial price to create momentum. This initial pricing, often called early-bird pricing, is set attractively to achieve strong take-up rates.
What Is a "Price Revision" in New Launch Condos?
A price revision refers to the increase in per-square-foot (PSF) pricing of condo units as a project moves through its launch phases. Developers typically release units in batches:
- Phase 1 / Preview Launch: Lower entry prices to generate buzz and meet ABSD deadlines
- Phase 2 & Beyond: Price increases based on demand, take-up rate, and market sentiment
This means buyers in later phases often pay more for similar or even less favorable stacks.
Why Do Developers Raise Prices in Phases?
1. To Build Early Momentum
Lower prices during previews attract HDB upgraders and first-time buyers, boosting launch weekend sales.
2. To Meet ABSD & Construction Milestones
Developers must sell all residential units within 5 years from the date of land acquisition to qualify for a 30% ABSD remission. Failing to do so results in the ABSD becoming payable on the full land purchase price. (Source: IRAS – ABSD for Housing Developers)
3. To Maximise Profit as Demand Grows
Once a project gains traction and is seen as successful, developers often become more confident in raising prices. Momentum is reinforced by positive media coverage and URA caveat data, which in turn attracts even more buyer interest.
To capitalise on this momentum, developers commonly use the following pricing strategies:
- Loss-leader pricing: The initial 10% to 20% of units are often priced more attractively to spark early demand.
- Phased price increases: Prices are progressively raised once early sales targets are achieved.
- Stack-based pricing: Units with premium views, higher floors, or better orientation are priced higher from the outset.
- Strategic withholding: The most desirable stacks are sometimes held back and released later at a premium.
Together, these tactics build a sense of urgency and scarcity, encouraging buyers to commit early before prices climb.
How to Know If a Price Revision Is Coming
1. Strong Phase 1 Sales Often Lead to Price Revisions
It’s commonly observed that when more than half the units are sold during the launch weekend, developers are more likely to raise prices in subsequent phases, especially if premium stacks are taken up quickly.
2. Positive Take-Up During Preview Weekend
While there’s no fixed rule, developers often monitor weekend performance closely. Strong demand during the preview typically increases their confidence to revise prices upward in the following weeks, especially if sales exceed internal targets or popular stacks are sold out quickly.
For example, Lentor Hills Residences reportedly sold over 50% of units on launch weekend, and agents observed that this triggered higher pricing for unsold units. The Chuan Park also saw robust demand during its initial launch, according to agent briefings, which likely informed developer pricing decisions in subsequent batches.
3. Low Remaining Stack Variety
When high-demand stacks (e.g., pool-facing, higher floors) get sold early, remaining units tend to be less ideal. Developers may still raise prices in subsequent phases, especially for unique or scarce unit types, but buyers may find themselves paying more for less-desirable options.
4. Upcoming Launches Nearby
If nearby competitors are launching at higher prices, developers may adjust to match market expectations.
Buyer Tip: Lock In Early, But Smartly
Buying early does not mean compromising. Here’s how to protect your investment:
- Study floor plans and avoid bottom-tier stacks even at preview
- Check URA master plan for upcoming transformations (e.g., Marina South, Jurong Lake District)
- Confirm price per PSF vs total quantum to ensure affordability
Always work with a trusted agent, like Zach Lin, who has access to direct developer pricing and launch insights.
What the Data Actually Shows About Buying Early
An analysis of over 20,000 URA resale transactions from 2011 to 2025 reveals that early buyers generally enjoy stronger gains and lower loss risk, but it’s not always that simple.
Early Buyers Generally Come Out Ahead — But Not Always by a Huge Margin
Buyers in the first 30% of a launch typically enjoy returns of 29.2% to 30.8%, while those in the last 10% saw only 26.7% ROI. The risk of loss also increases significantly over time. Early buyers faced just 2.7% to 3.3% risk of loss, while the latest group saw losses rise to 7.3%.
But Earliest Isn’t Always Best
Interestingly, buyers in the 20–30% bracket sometimes did slightly better than the earliest 0–10% buyers. This may be because early units (e.g. small or less premium stacks) are priced low but have less upside, while family-sized units released slightly later may perform better over time.
During Downturns, Early Buyers Still Win
In weak markets like 2014–2016, price cuts were rare. Developers held firm, and early buyers in this period saw ROI of 35–37%, while late buyers averaged only 28.6%.
The benefits of buying early were most obvious during downturns. Between 2014–2016, when cooling measures like TDSR impacted affordability, early buyers still enjoyed average returns of 35–37%, while late buyers fared worse despite fewer price hikes overall.
In booming years like 2011–2013, late buyers who purchased near the market’s peak were far more likely to suffer losses, proving that where we are in the property cycle is just as important as when you enter a launch.
Bigger Projects = Bigger Opportunity for Early Entry
One of the most consistent patterns? Large developments with phased launches often reward early entry more than small boutique condos. The sheer number of units in these mega-developments gives developers more room to raise prices over time, making price gaps between early and late phases more pronounced.
Boutique projects, by contrast, often launch and sell out quickly, leaving less differentiation between early and late buyers.
In Today’s Market, Early Still Pays
In most cases, buyers who entered during the preview or launch phase enjoyed not only lower entry prices but also a faster return on capital should they sell after the project obtains TOP (Temporary Occupation Permit).
That said, early buyers still have a slight edge. According to URA resale data, loss rates among buyers in the 0–60% bands were remarkably low, ranging from 0% to 1.2%. In contrast, loss rates for buyers in the last 10% rose to 4.1% — proving that even in a flatter market, timing still matters.
Looking Ahead: Why 2025 Buyers May Be Perfectly Positioned for Growth
While this article has focused on developer pricing strategies and past buyer outcomes, it’s also important to look ahead at what’s coming in the next 2–3 years, and what it means for those buying in 2025.
Here’s what current market trends suggest:
- TOP condo supply is set to drop significantly by 2027, meaning fewer completed homes will enter the market, creating a supply crunch.
- Meanwhile, a large number of HDB flats will reach MOP (Minimum Occupation Period) in the same period. That means thousands of HDB owners will be eligible to upgrade to private condos.
- This setup mirrors the dynamics of 2020–2022, when upgrader demand and low supply combined to push condo prices sharply upward.
- Add to that the likelihood of falling interest rates over the next few years and conditions could become even more favorable for price growth.
Chart: Singapore Housing Market Trends — Supply vs Price Index (2025–2029)
Source: Compiled from URA data. HDB MOP and TOP supply forecasts show a sharp imbalance in 2027, mirroring the 2020–2022 upcycle.
Buying Tip: If capital appreciation is your goal, buying into a new launch now before Phase 2 prices increase positions you ahead of the curve. By the time the rest of the market reacts, the best units (and prices) may already be gone. Entering at Phase 1 pricing in 2025 could set you up for strong capital appreciation by 2027–2028, when supply tightens and upgrader demand accelerates again.
Should You Wait for Discounts or Buy Before Revision?
Waiting can sometimes backfire. While some hope for leftover unit discounts, 2025’s market shows:
- Top 30% of units often sold out in early phases
- Later buyers pay more with lesser views or stack positions
- Interest rate environment remains stable, increasing buyer urgency
According to URA data, non-landed private home prices in the OCR increased by 0.3% in Q1 2025. While specific data on Phase 1 versus Phase 2 pricing isn’t publicly available, it’s common for developers to raise prices in subsequent phases following strong initial sales. Projects like Parktown Residence, Chuan Park and Elta have exemplified this trend, setting new benchmark prices in their respective neighborhoods.
In most cases, buying during or just after the preview launch yields the best value.
Bonus Insight: What URA Caveats Reveal About New Launch Pricing
URA caveat data shows a consistent trend among top-performing new launches in Singapore:
- Over 90% of top-grossing condo projects sold their first 30% of units at the lowest PSF
- Average price increases of 8% to 15% were observed between Phase 1 and the final release
This reinforces the advantage of entering early, not just in terms of selection, but also in maximising future gains.
Final Thoughts: Stay Ahead, Stay Informed
Price revisions are not a scare tactic. They are a proven pricing mechanism in Singapore’s condo market. If you’re planning to purchase a new launch in 2025, knowing how developers think and how actual resale data supports early buying gives you the upper hand.
Sign up for early previews, get price trend reports, and move quickly when a project fits your budget and goals.
Ready to secure the best units before prices go up?
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